Crude Oil 222 Pattern

crude gartley

The embedded image in this post is of May crude oil. Note the classic M shape that has evolved since mid-December. This one is a bit tricky as A=C. This makes a true double top. In most patterns, C will come up less than A. In any case, it is point D that matters as this is the buy signal. Using closing prices to calculate XA and applying the phi ratio of 0.786 gives a price in the $90.80 range. Using hi-lo data to calculate XA gives us a projected D of $90.06. If price slips under $90.06, the pattern fails. If, however, the pattern is validated, crude will start to move up which interestingly enough would align with a seasonal tendency that tends to kick in around the end of February. 


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